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I never liked Chiz Escudero. The linked post just about sums up why this man – as great a speaker as he is — should never be in the position to radically alter our educational system and what not to his liking.

Most of my friends, co-bloggers and colleagues were all praises for him back in 2007. The guy had an amazingly pristine air about him – he captured the imagination of a disgruntled youth and the admiration of the older generation. He seemed like a messiah you could charm just about anyone.

And charm everyone he did. He finished a close second to Loren Legarda and even outdid seasoned senatorial veterans like Manuel Villar and Joker Arroyo. He was the embodiment of a brand new hope for a people who was weary from generations of traditional politics and dirty plays.

People chose to look past the fact that he hails from one of the poorest provinces in the country.

People chose to ignore that he is the scion of a well-established political dynasty that reaped the benefits of being allied with the Marcos regime.

It somehow brings me great vindication to see that more and more people are seeing through the glass, smoke and mirrors that is the image of Francis Escudero. I’m sure the recent events would render him an non-viable candidate for the two highest positions in the country for the 2010 elections – and for the other polls in his lifetime.

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The Social Weather Station (SWS) recently released a new poll regarding voter preferences of Filipino voters for Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s replacement come 2010. It comes without a surprise that Noynoy Aquino is far an away the leader with 60% of the respondents saying that he can be an acceptable successor to Arroyo. What’s worth noting is that he came out of nowhere to claim this spot – he wasn’t even part of past surveys!

The first thing we have to look at is what the numbers actually mean. It doesn’t mean that 60% of the respondents would vote for Noynoy Aquino if elections were held today – it only means that 60% consider him as a good replacement for the current president. Respondents can have multiple answers so the 60% is actually an upper limit for the number that he can get. It can be surmised that 40% will not consider voting for President had the elections been held during the day of the survey. That being said, the current support for any candidate on this list is considerably less than the number on the graph. Continue Reading »

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Unless you’ve been living under a rock for the past few months, you’re probably aware that the US General Election is just around the corner. Given the electoral college system that the US employs, the goal for Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama is to carry a number of states that would allow them to come up with the necessary amount of electoral votes. The magic number for the US election is 270.

Four years ago, George Bush handily beat John Kerry 286 to 252. This was an especially traumatic blow to the Democrats considering how close they came to victory back in 2000 – Al Gore ‘lost’ to George Bush by about 500 votes in Florida thus swinging the final tally at 271 to 266. It’s also worth mentioning that Gore actually won the popular vote that year.

Winning and losing elections boil down to protecting states that are traditionally aligned towards a particular party and aggressively attempting to capture so-called swing or battleground states. These states are areas wherein the deficit between the supporters of the two parties are workable enough to merit allocation resources and valuable campaign time.

As it stands now,  Obama is poised to win the general election and if current trends hold, we  may very well see a landslide of Clintonesque proportions. According to CNN projections, the senator from Illinois just needs one more battleground state to clinch magic number while McCain needs to win every single one (and keep all the red states) to stand a chance.

But what if the rest of the world were to be given an opportunity to vote? Would the outcome be any different? Well, yes and no. No in the sense that Obama will still win. But here’s the big difference – it would be a literal landslide of apocalyptic proportions.

The Economist – easily the favorite publication of debaters worldwide — has assigned electoral votes proportional to a country’s population. Less populous countries like Fiji get three electoral votes while the more populous countries get to have 1,588 (India) and 1,900 in China’s case. Since the Philippines  is the 12th most populous nation in the world, we get 132 imaginary votes.

Just  look at that map! Save for three little smidgens of pink and red, the entire world is on the blue side. For those keeping tabs at home, the three countries that are leaning McCain’s way are the Eastern European nations of Macedonia, Moldova and of course, Georgia. All the rest are heavily slanted towards Obama and Biden. The score? Obama/Biden 8571 McCain/Palin 23.

You can still vote. As of this posting, Obama was leading 79% to McCain 21% among Filipino voters.

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Pulse Asia just released the results of their polls from February 21 to March 8 and after days of number crunching, we are now ready to meet and greet the presumptive front runner for the 2010 Presidential Elections. Continue Reading »

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As ironic as this might sound to most people, I’m a big fan of Pampanga Governor-elect Ed Panlilio. It takes guts to man up against the wife of an alleged jueteng lord and incumbent in a hotly contested election, but that’s not the reason why I admire him. Yes, he’s a priest. And yes, I know he believes in the higher power that Catholics are taught to accept. Those issues take the backseat compared to how he ran his campaign and how he has kept his humility and political correctness in his success.

Unlike other pretentious clergy men who have the despicable urge to inject every holier than thou statement when being interviewed by the media *cough Robert Reyes cough* *cough Eddie Villanueva cough*, Panlilio shows eloquence, maturity and composure in handling his business. I never heard him say things regarding uniting people under a religion or one god. He doesn’t invoke his priesthood as a means of making himself more ‘suitable’ or more ‘closer to god’ unlike that douche bag Eddie Villanueva has done repeatedly since 2004. He is constructive in his comments and never will you hear him blaming people for all the wrongs that they’ve did. If you’ve heard him talk, you would see that his ideas are clearly inclusive and sincerely cooperative. He is not a mere whiner who invokes random concepts regarding abstract things like moral compass and takot sa diyos when faced with difficult questions on his qualifications. There was nothing fundamentalist about his stance and he’s sensitive enough to treat everyone nicely even if certain people are in the minority.

Other than his tasteful and tactful way of handling interviews, it is very apparent that he knows what he’s talking about. He’s not just some guy whose stock knowledge exclusively consists of mere psalms. He has consistently articulated his plans on his first and (supposed) last term as governor. With little nuggets of information he has hinted on how well-read he is on economics and public administration.

I am absolutely in awe of his courage. I admire his intellectual prowess. Most importantly, I appreciate his conscious effort to keep his interviews as secular as possible. He keeps himself from crossing the distasteful line that Eddie Villanueva has crossed and the boundary that the Ang Kapatiran christian Fundamentalist Taliban Party have zealously stepped over. He knows he has clout inside his religion, but he didn’t abuse it. He recognizes the differences among people and he chooses to pay respect to everyone by being politely unassuming and politically correct.

It doesn’t come as a surprise to me that most of my Atheist friends are also huge fans of his.

Mabuhay ka Among Ed!

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The counting has begun. Let’s see how things are shaping up. Be reminded that all polls are partial and unofficial.

According to Pulse Asia, the exit polls yielded a 4-6-2 Team Unity-Genuine Opposition-Independent split. Opposition stalwarts Loren Legarda, Chiz Escudero, Ping Lacson, Manny Villar, Noynoy Aquino and Antonio Trillanes are joined by Team Unity bets Edgardo Angara, Joker Arroyo, Miguel Zubiri and Ralph Recto. Completing the lineup are independent candidates Kiko Pangilinan and Gringo Honasan.

The ABS-CBN-STI Quick Count so far shows a 2-8-2 split. Departures from the projected results (based on exit polls) are as follows:

• the inclusion of Koko Pimentel (12) and Alan Peter Cayetano(7).
• the exclusion of Miguel Zubiri (13) and Ralph Recto (14).

The GMA-Inquirer-AMA Quick Count reflects a 4-7-1 split with over a million votes counted for most of the projected winners.

• Alan Peter Cayetano is at 7th place – he was 13th in the exit polls.
• Gringo Honasan is in 13th position.

Based on the those three unofficial results, the names of Legarda, Escudero, Aquino, Lacson, Pangilinan, Angara and Arroyo seem to be doing well enough to stay in the early top 12.

For the provinces, these are the current tallies:

Zamboanga – Zamboanga del Norte and Zamboanga del Sur both voted heavily for Gloria Macapagal Arroyo back in 2004. For 2007, it’s a totally different story (at least so far).

That’s a total wallop for the Administration side. Your eyes are not fooling you. It’s a 1-9-2 breakdown in favor of the Genuine Opposition. Only Angara at eleventh spot is representing Team Unity. Hmmm…

Cebu – GMA won this province handily with almost 90% of the total vote in 2004. As of 10PM last night:

If there was one place that could help Team Unity make it a closer fight, it’s definitely going to Cebu. Despite the 6-5-1 advantage that they hold in one of the most vote-rich provinces in the nation, one has to admit that this falls short of their expected dominance in an island that gave GMA the decisive advantage to win the 2004 elections.

Pampanga – Is expected to be a bailiwick for the Administration. Did it deliver?

_1_ARROYO,_JOKER_P.______________232,969_(20.72%)
_2_PANGILINAN,_FRANCIS_N.________227,605_(20.24%)
_3_RECTO,_RALPH_G._______________221,947_(19.74%)
_4_DEFENSOR,_MICHAEL_T.__________209,249_(18.61%)
_5_ANGARA,_EDGARDO_J.____________207,794_(18.48%)
_6_PICHAY,_PROSPERO_JR._A._______207,458_(18.45%)
_7_ZUBIRI,_JUAN_MIGUEL_F.________197,778_(17.59%)
_8_SOTTO,_VICENTE_III_C._________169,182_(15.05%)
_9_VILLAR,_MANUEL_JR._B._________163,858_(14.57%)
10_LEGARDA,_LOREN_B._____________151,197_(13.45%)
11_AQUINO,_BENIGNO_SIMEON_III____150,607_(13.39%)
12_ESCUDERO,__FRANCIS_JOSEPH_G___150,014_(13.34%)
13_MONTANO,_CESAR_M._____________129,902_(11.55%)
14_MAGSAYSAY,_VICENTE_P._________124,779_(11.10%)
15_SINGSON,_LUIS_C.______________115,673_(10.29%)

That’s about as close as a resounding yes that you can get from the President’s home province. It’s 7-4-1 for Team Unity with the four opposition candidates rounding up the rear at positions 9 to 12.

Here are the current NAMFREL numbers

It’s currently 3-7-2 for the Genuine Opposition.

Be reminded that all results are partial and unofficial.Thanks to Manolo for the links.

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