I never had the chance to reconnect with her after she left the Circle to pursue medicine elsewhere but now I regret not doing so.

We love you Jessa. We miss you already.

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The First Filipino Freethinkers Forum back in February 28 jump started the organization and there have been countless meetups, provincial gatherings, symposiums, parties and other social events since then. If you’re a freethinker, join us and enjoy films on secularism, rationalism and other freethinker favorites.

The venue is quite big so bring all your freethinking friends and family along. Just RSVP via the event’s official Facebook page and we’ll reserve a seat for you. See you there!

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De Lasalle University beat the odds and won the right to host the 2012 World Universities Debate Championship during the voting held at Koc University in Turkey just days in 2010. Despite catty remarks from DLSU’s main rival Hart House/ University of Toronto regarding the unsafe environment that Manila poses, DLSU won convincingly with a final tally of 72 to 28. The founding members have four votes each while each other participating country has one.

The Worlds are usually held days after Christmas until well into the first week of the following year. The DLSU Worlds will start on late December 2011. Congratulations to the De Lasalle debaters who made this happen! Special kudos to Dino and Victor who really worked hard for the bid.

DLSU Official Bid Website

The DLSU Worlds is set to be the 32nd annual WUDC. It is the second time that the tournament is coming to the Philippines. Ateneo de Manila University hosted it back in 1999.

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Cheers!

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I will be comparing the October poll numbers for 2007 with the final COMELEC tally and see who among the 2010 hopefuls can still cross their fingers and hope for the best.

This was how the October 2007 survey results looked:

There were twelve slots up for grabs for 2007 and based on the October-November numbers for Pulse Asia, there were nineteen senatoriables who had a realistic chance of winning one of the seats. Of these nineteen, ten where projected to be sure winners had the elections been held six months earlier. These ten included Loren Legarda, Panfilo Lacson, Francis Pangilinan, Manuel Villar, Alan Peter Cayetano, Tito Sotto, Ralph Recto, Korina Sanchez, Koko Pimentel and Gringo Honasan. Interestingly, of these “sure bets”, four ultimately failed to win a seat – Sanchez didn’t run while former senators Sotto and Recto (Team UNITY – the administration slate) dropped off the list (Recto ended up at #14 while Sotto was over three million votes short of the twelfth spot at #19. Genuine Opposition candidate Koko Pimentel was controversially beaten by some twenty thousand votes and finished at #13.

Loren Legarda was able to hold on to the top spot of the surveys and eventually clinched the highest vote total as well for the senate. Ping Lacson finished at third while Villar,Pangilinan, Cayetano and Honasan finished at 4th, 5th, 9th and 10th.

That means that out of the upper half of the circle of 19 (again, the people projected to win sic months before the polls), only 6 out of 10 managed to win. This leaves us with six more slots to discuss.

Of the remaining nine people who had a statistical chance of winning, four chose to not run – former Senator Loi Ejercito, JV Ejercito, Imee Marcos and Ruffy Biazon. This leaves us with Edgardo Angara, Noynoy Aquino, Chiz Escudero, John Osmena and Joker Arroyo.

Chiz Escudero experienced one of the most meteoric rises ever seen in pre-election polls to actual vote counts. From being considered as a long shot half a year before the elections, Escudero was within three hundred thousand votes of overtaking Loren Legarda as the top vote getter for the 2007 Senatorial elections. Noynoy Aquino, Edgardo Angara and Joker Arroyo all secured slots as well – positions six through eight, respectively.

John Osmena continued his losing streak as he languished at the 20th spot.

-

Out of the 19 people who made it to the threshold of possibly winning, only fifteen ran. Of these fifteen, ten were able to win seats – and the five who lost were somewhere between positions 13 and 20.

The question is, who were the two people who made it into the actual winners’ circle?

Easy, Antonio Trillanes and Miguel Zubiri. Quite fittingly, there occupied the last two slots.

Trillanes was projected at best as a 42nd placer six months before the elections. Zubiri’s name wasn’t even on the survey sheet.

—

So while the October surveys gives an idea of more than half of the possible winners, never discount the people who might suddenly pop up. To be fair to Pulse Asia, they did get right during their last survey (just a few weeks before election day). Eleven of the twelve who won were in the projected list of winners. Only Trillanes was outside the top 14. Interestingly, Trillanes was able to boost his measly rating of 3.1 (Oct 06) to 22.0 (Apr 07) while incarcerated for rebellion charges.

Zubiri certainly spent a ton on TV advertisements down the stretch and he did benefit from being one of the more likeable people (i.e. people without much political baggage) from Team Unity.

So what do the numbers tell us?

1) Polls taken half a year before the elections can be a good gauge on who wins – especially those in the upper half.

2) Beware of the “sure thing”.

3) Candidates who have a a seemingly small shot can still turn things around given the adequate amount of money for TV ads/ coverage for rebellion charges!

—

Here’s the latest Pulse Survey/ Feel free to read into it.

Reference: Pulse Asia

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Lyceum NDC Tabs

Motions
Prelims
THBT the NDCC should have full control of disaster relief operations during natural calamities
THW allow former rebels to join the African Union’s peace keeping forces
THW give racist groups airtime on government-funded media
THBT Catholic schools should have the right to expel teenage students who get pregnant
TH Regrets the effects of social networking sites on the youth
THW allow hermaphrodite athletes to compete in the gender category based on the way they were raised.
THBT China must not make concessions in Copenhagen unless the West increases its environmental commitments

Finals Series
THBT Israel should swap Hamas prisoners in exchange for captured Israeli soldiers
THBT the prevalence of sexually-charged gay themes in local independent films is harmful to the homosexual movement
THBT Latin America should nationalize its capital markets
THW ban politicians who recently transferred to another political party to run for presidency

===
Credit:

Miko Biscocho for the tab. Claire Jiao for the list of motions.

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I think it’s quite easy to find Chiz Escudero as one of the most grandstanding-prone politicians on television. While he may have a way with words, he does come across as someone who could easily smooth talk his way into spewing out ideas that are generally agreeable but not necessarily concrete or helpful – pretty much like Barack Obama. Of course that type of  charm works for a certain type of person and to be fair to Chiz, that type of person is the absolute majority once the greater scheme of things is considered.

Chiz Escudero in the flesh was not in any way pompous, arrogant or disagreeable. While it was not clear why he wanted to see bloggers for that day (other than to have small talk and probably feed a few undernourshed bloggers such as myself), it was nice to sit across him and have him answer off-the-cuff and unscripted questions from his obvious supporters, critics and skeptics.

The Good

- If everything where to be taken at face value – pretty much the same way that the good in me would like to see things — Francis “Chiz” Escudero seems to have his heart and head in the right place. He comes across as someone who can sleep soundly at night. I know that this is a very subjective comment that could further contradict the other things that I would write as this entry progresses, but at the basic visceral level, he seems like a guy who would be hard to hate. Either that or I’m just a naturally nice guy.

- He is  his own man – or so it seems. This is where the question of whether or not you trust him comes into play. With the words that he has in his arsenal, he could almost always pluck out a good set of words that would come off as something inspiring and rational enough. I asked him about his stand regarding the separation of church and state as well as his tenacity when it comes to resisting pressures from the church in case there is an appeal to have him change his mind on a certain issue. While he didn’t exactly qualify his support for the Reproductive Health bill itself, he did say that he advocates the responsible planning of one’s family and the availability and access to the necessary information that would bolster one’s reproductive health.

- He is against abortion but is willing to make leeway for certain cases – he mentioned something about ectopic pregnancies. As far as I know, it is legal to terminate these types of pregnancies so his point came across as moot to me. I really wanted to ask him, when does life begin? This is a key question in the pro-choice debates overseas but it seemed out of place in the meeting so I bit my tongue.

- He reiterated his reasons for leaving his now-former party - the Nationalist People’s Coalition. He stated that the terms of his departure was amicable and both sides understood where each was coming from.

- He is not easily intimidated by the bishops and the church. During the height of the Estrada cases, the bishops of Sorsogon tried to pin him down and shame him due to his loyalty to the former president. He easily didn’t back down and he clearly showed that he isn’t beholden to the church – nor is he trying to bend over backwards like most politicians just to accommodate the whims and desires of the clergy.

- He has the brains to offer revolutionary solutions that could promise great change. He can think outside of the box – but of course, not all things inside the box are bad and the things that lie outside of it are rightly kept outside the realm of possible options.

- He claimed to be a maverick in his own party. This is a cursed word in US politics of course, Sarah Palin and John McCain totally used this word to the high heavens just to prove a point. We all know what happened of course. Escudero sure tried to show that he was often taking stances that were opposite the official NPC position.

- He said he finds nothing wrong with same-sex marriage. It was interesting that he said this when the question that was fielded by one of the guests was just one regarding the anti-discrimination bill. He somehow qualified his position though by saying that the country is not ready for it. That somehow dilutes whatever “support” he has for the idea, right?

- He seems to have a sense of humor. When someone drew the parallelism between him and US President Barack Obama, Escudero jested that he was only like Barack “from the waist down”.

The Bad

- Just like 99% of politicians, it’s hard to fall for everything that he says. Trusting Chiz Escudero doesn’t come easy. Again, to be fair, this would apply to almost all politicians – and people in general.

- While he may be not beholden to the church, what he hasn’t proven is that he is not beholden to other powers – i.e. Erap and the rest of his ilk. The impact of standing up to the bishops was somehow diluted because he was standing next to Erap, Jinggoy and the other jabronis in that clique.

- He claimed that he was misquoted regarding the algebra issue. While I did try to hear him out, I was just left scratching my head in the end of his lengthy explanation. The basic idea behind his move to change the curriculum seems decent enough – the Department of Educations seems to be very non-flexible in changing the way things are taught to children and reviewing these lesson plans only twice per decade seems to be a tad too infrequent for comfort.

- He pushed this argument to it’s logical conclusion that we must somehow specialize the subjects in high school based on the abilities and potential future careers of the students. Of course, that supposedly logical conclusion would only fly if 1) children in high school already knew what type of career they wanted (hint: a vast majority don’t) and 2) high school students were better off specializing and choosing with subjects to choose as electives. Both premises are clearly not feasible since they are not the case by any stretch of the imagination – I guess in Chiz’s mind it is, but I didn’t feel compelled to buy into the logic of the statement. The rousing “aha!” moment in the venue surprised me though. It’s as if they really bought what he said.

- High school students have to trained to be good in just about everything since most aren’t probably sure which course or career they want. Some would even be basing their choices on the type of course that their first choice university would allow them to take. This is why you have to give all students the right amount of tools to take on whatever challenge. It also allows the student to have back up plans should the first choice of career or course turns out to be a bad fit.

- Chiz made an example regarding students who were dead set on being one thing and it would be shame if they were to fail or repeat a year in school because they missed the mark on a subject irrelevant to their future career. Aside from the ideas in the bullets preceding this one, “specialty” subjects (who to him are only helpful for those who will be going to engineering and similar disciplines) such as trigonometry and calculus are just mere subjects. He didn’t take into consideration these subjects’ potential to enrich the critical thinking of young students. Coming from an intelligent person such as Chiz who is obviously a sharp knife in the drawer, the logic is really suspect.

- The example of a prodigy who is dead set on doing one thing and committing to a train of subjects is a big risk. At the very least, these type of people are an absolute minority (arguably less than 10% of the typical high school class). Allowing students to be only good at certain subjects skews the grading systems and this could cause irregularities in college admissions. I think this is also a valid extension and conclusion to Chiz’s premise. And in the practical sense, there are also great minds who were primed to be one thing – take the example of Shaira Luna for example of Promil Gifted Child Fame — but ended up doing something entirely different. Imagine if she was bee-lined into a program that was just going to bombard her with life sciences lessons during her high school year.

- And lastly, he wanted to give a passing grade to everyone who was victimized by Ondoy. He said since there was barely a month left in the semester, it shouldn’t hurt to give a free pass to the second sem. This was his reaction to the idea that the first semester was to be extended to allow for make-up classes.

- I really don’t understand his aversion to make-up classes . This is a widely accepted practice that may cause inconveniece, but in the end, with all things considered, it is done to the benefit of the student. The student missed valuable hours of schooling in a classroom and this is addressed by replacing the hours and extending the semestral schedule.

-Giving a free pass to student does not in anyway prepare him or her to the challenges of the next semester. Chiz didn’t seem to take into account that lessons in school are often linear and that prerequisite knowledge of a core concept would have to taught first before progressing to the more advanced concepts and operations of the second semester.

- His main defense for his pass-them-idea? Well, the students need to pick up their lives since it is in shambles and the teachers are also having problems. If anything, going to school gives them a semblance of normalcy that life goes on and that there is a need to strive for greater success and achievement to rise up from the challenges. Going to school shouldn’t be a burden to these children – I’m sure their parents also want them to be in school and continue getting lessons to catch up with whatever learning gap the typhoon has caused.

- Also, how are you going to implement this? Is this a blanket policy or will it only apply to those who were flooded. Clearly, not all students would have been flooded and a selective and not-so-objective way of looking at storm damage would have to fall on the shoulders of the ones making the grades. Chiz also conceded that there would be multiple strong typhoons yearly. Does this mean that he would be willing to keep on giving out free passes every time there’s a big flood problem come October or September since the semester is ending anyway?

The Chiz-y
Ladies and gentlemen, Chiz Escudero tried to run this argument.

Don’t you think those children learned more with their experience during the typhoon and floods compared to what they could ever learn in a classroom?

That is not the quote exactly, but that was the main idea. While I agree and concede that yes, exposure to duress, disasters and calamities may bring out the best out of people and help build character… It doesn’t immediately follow that you should give students who were flooded a passing grade. It was an amazing logical fallacy if there ever was one. It’s a grand hybrid of ad misericordiam and non sequitur. To Chiz though, it was the logical conclusion of the argument. I’m really baffled. What he suggested was a bit patronizing and somehow irrational.

Maybe that sort of reasoning works for some people, but with all due respect to the Senator and all his supporters, that won’t work on me. Things were somehow on the upswing until he said these things right to my face (he was sitting across me – I think it was Noemi’s idea to have me sit there!)

—

1) Thanks to Carlo Ople for the invitation. The photo also belongs to him.

2) Chiz didn’t say anything regarding his election plans. If you guys would remember, he has only been senator for less than three years – he is assured of a senate seat until 2013 whether or not he wins, loses or even sits pretty without filing his candidacy for 2010.

3) Chiz WILL NOT be Erap’s running mate. I asked this question just to get it out of the way.

4) Chiz will make his decision on the days leading up to the deadline for filing of candidacy (Dec 1)

5) I don’t think I will ever vote for Chiz Escudero.

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Again, Wolfgang will be taking the stage again on December 1 at 19 East in Sucat. This will be just a few days before they rock out in Dubai so it will be quite a show. For tickets, call: 0906.103.5333
0915.621.2189

Part of the proceed would go to the benefit of the victims of recent disasters.

This is Wolfgang’s eighth show since the informal hiatus that the band took in the early part of this decade. Let’s count down those eight shows

1. Peligro (Makati, 2004?) – This absolutely was the most emotionally-charged moment for a Wolfgang fan in the years immediately after Basti Artadi’s unexpected “sorta-farewell” message. People who got in had the time of their lives while those outside bitched and moaned like there was no tomorrow – guess which group I was in.

2-3. Alive Music Museum Concerts (January 2007 x 2) – The Alive concerts are just way too hard to top in terms of milestones. Not only did these concerts allow more people to see Wolfgang – okay fine, three of the original members — it also hinted at the potential of a new album despite the ridiculous geographical challenges.

4. Black Christmas at Eastwood (December 2008) – This concert featured the release of VILLAINS – Wolfgang’s sixth studio album. Read the entry if you want to really know how I felt about this concert.

5. Two Sides Live at Music Museum (March 2009) -  This had major technical problems during the beginning – it was very annoying to see the tech guys fumble with the microphone. Kevin Roy’s mic malfunctioned several times. And wow, the bouncers were absolutely ridiculous. The idea of sitting down in a rock concert is absurd – in my opinion, since the people on stage are standing up, leaving your seat while the band is playing is a sign of respect. But no, these bouncers were ready to spoil the party. ANNOYING BITCHES. Good thing Lizza fixed things when it was Wolfgang’s turn to play already.

6. The Singapore Set

7. The Cebu Set

=====

My Wishlist for Hit N Run

1. Well, the first wish has already been granted – sort of. This will be a STANDING ROOM ONLY venue so those bouncers will have no business forcing people to take their seats. I was really annoyed during Two Sides Live and I’m really happy that steps have been taken to ensure that no similar incidents would happen for Hit N Run.

2. More Black Mantra… PLEASE! Quick, let’s do a Wolfgang post-Wolf Gemora pop quiz. How many Black Mantra songs has Wolfgang played in those seven concerts? You want to know the answer? ONE. Yes. ONE. And it’s Judas Noose. I have no idea if the songs are just too hard to play or there’s some darker reasons for the band not wanting to select tracks from this release. I personally love Black Mantra and I’d love to hear No Falter live.

3. I hope the band would play more songs that we haven’t heard in a long time! Here are the songs that they always play -  Arise, Mata ng Diyos, Halik ni Hudas, Center of The Sun, Sanctified, Tulisan and Very Free. I hope they throw in RATZ, Heavenspent or Catinamosh.

4. The Alive DVD! I honestly don’t think it will be out next month, but one could hope, right?

See you all on December 1!

Evil is our lair!

Viewed 43268 times by 2300 viewers

Manolo’s popularity is definitely on an all time high and a run for the senate is a very feasible idea already. He has not voiced out his plans for 2010, but with enough of those who believe in his potential in abilities, we may just get him to run for us who think that we deserve leaders at his caliber.

Having Manolo in the Senate will not just be a good development for Philippine politics just because of what he brings to the table – it could also send a strong message that the political landscape in general is changing to a more progressive and critical-thinking atmosphere. It will heavily erode the strong biases against sectors of society.

Join us. Join the Manolo Quezon For Senator Facebook Group.

Viewed 41180 times by 1853 viewers

Most of my friends, co-bloggers and colleagues were all praises for him back in 2007. The guy had an amazingly pristine air about him – he captured the imagination of a disgruntled youth and the admiration of the older generation. He seemed like a messiah you could charm just about anyone.

And charm everyone he did. He finished a close second to Loren Legarda and even outdid seasoned senatorial veterans like Manuel Villar and Joker Arroyo. He was the embodiment of a brand new hope for a people who was weary from generations of traditional politics and dirty plays.

People chose to look past the fact that he hails from one of the poorest provinces in the country.

People chose to ignore that he is the scion of a well-established political dynasty that reaped the benefits of being allied with the Marcos regime.

It somehow brings me great vindication to see that more and more people are seeing through the glass, smoke and mirrors that is the image of Francis Escudero. I’m sure the recent events would render him an non-viable candidate for the two highest positions in the country for the 2010 elections – and for the other polls in his lifetime.

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Wolfgang will be coming back to the Philippines this December. This is just a month away from now so you better get your tickets soon!

December 1 – 19 East (Sucat, Muntinlupa)

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Arcellana who spoke as the opposition whip was the best speaker for the Finals. UP Diliman A was the last of the top-seeded teams remaining in the competition. The three other teams in the top four – Ateneo A, UP Manila A and Ateneo F (1st, 3rd and 4th) — all got eliminated during the highly contentious quarterfinal rounds. Ateneo C finished 5th, Ateneo B was 7th while UP Diliman C was 8th. This is UP Diliman’s second National Debate Championship win. The duo of Nico Cabrera and Claudia Poon was the first team from Diliman to ever win the prestigious title.

Arcellana and Chan also reached the finals back in 2007 (Philippine Military Academy as hosts) but lost to eventual champions Ateneo (then with Mico Biscocho and Gica Mangahas). The University of the Cordilleras in Baguio City won the right to host the 12th National Debate Championship next year.

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Another Philippine university will be bidding for the 2012 Worlds and I’m wishing them all the best. De Lasalle University will take its case to the council members during the 2010 Worlds at Koc, Turkey to see if they can bring back the tournament back to the Philippines. They need all the help they can get so I’m officially throwing in my support for the Lasalle ’sbid for  32nd Worlds for what it’s worth.

Note: The Worlds take place from the last few days of December to the first week of January. Going to the Worlds is a great ’sacrifice’ since you will be surely celebrating the New Year without your family around. The 2011 Worlds will be hosted by Botswana.

Past hosts:

2009 -University of Cork (Ireland)

2008 – Assumption University (Thailand)

2007 – University of British Columbia (Canada)

Full list of hosts and winners here

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When discussing climate change, it’s almost impossible to evade the concept of global warming. To this day. global warming continues to be a contentious topic so it’s best to be skeptical about it. While it may be true, saying that it is the only thing driving the changes in the climate can be counter intuitive in mitigating the effects of stronger hurricanes and sea level rise.

While cutting emissions could be a good idea as a long-term plan to quell the effects of global warming, it doesn’t address the problems that people are already facing now. There has to be more proactive solutions to the effects of climate change and not just the cutting of emissions. If anthropologic global warming isn’t really the cause of the changes when all is said and done, we would just be left dead in the water.

The solutions to climate change need to be more revolutionary – both in terms of intellectual approach as well as  in the financial conventions that cities and countries are used to. Unless man does something to fortify settlements, floods would always happen and the human cost would always be great.

Here are some solutions that would be more apt in my opinion:

1. Conduct topographical studies that would map out areas with an immense risk of flooding – both permanently and temporarily – by using models for sea level rise and super typhoons. Advice the people of these areas regarding the risks and if possible, give suggestions on either how to fortift buildings in the area or suggest a possible re-settlement site.

2. Hire experts that would look at the ways to construct dams and dikes that could serve as protection should the seas encroach unto our shores. This would be very costly, but if the city of Manila is to survive sea level rise, big moves would have to be made.

Viewed 46717 times by 2242 viewers

The Social Weather Station (SWS) recently released a new poll regarding voter preferences of Filipino voters for Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s replacement come 2010. It comes without a surprise that Noynoy Aquino is far an away the leader with 60% of the respondents saying that he can be an acceptable successor to Arroyo. What’s worth noting is that he came out of nowhere to claim this spot – he wasn’t even part of past surveys!

The first thing we have to look at is what the numbers actually mean. It doesn’t mean that 60% of the respondents would vote for Noynoy Aquino if elections were held today – it only means that 60% consider him as a good replacement for the current president. Respondents can have multiple answers so the 60% is actually an upper limit for the number that he can get. It can be surmised that 40% will not consider voting for President had the elections been held during the day of the survey. That being said, the current support for any candidate on this list is considerably less than the number on the graph.

But even if it doesn’t reflect the numerical value of current support, it’s also important to note that the situation is still very fluid. If certain candidates pull out, they can still bolster the numbers of those who are in the race. This is were a wider base of “secondary supporters” come into play. For example, Noynoy Aquino and Mar Roxas would have been mutually approved in the survey sheets of most of their supporters. With a Mar Roxas pull out, Aquino would then monopolize those votes and consolidate them into a stronger block of ACTUAL support.

The sidelight perhaps is Loren Legarda. She probably won’t run for president; nor has she any chance of winning the top office for the rest of her life, but for a stretch of time from September 2007 to February 2009, Legarda was actually within striking distance of the top spot. This is reminiscent of the late Raul Roco’s performance in surveys prior to 2001 wherein he was constantly topping polls. While it was clear that Roco did himself in with the exposure of his lackluster political machinery, dodgy choice of senatoriables and *ugh* running mate; it is unclear what Legarda did to sabotage her own chances.

A lot of people hated Legarda for flip-flopping on Gloria – and ironically, this is despite the already growing hatred for the GMA Administration back in 2004 — but she still managed to bag 44% of the respondents’ votes of confidence back in 2007. I guess that only means that the 2004 incident was not the reason why she was dropped. The only hypothesis I could offer is that her supporters identified with Noynoy Aquino and Manny Villar – the two candidates whose popularity rose as hers was plummeting.

One interesting sidelight is how surprisingly bad Chiz Escudero’s showing has been. Despite topping the recent senatorial polls and taking every opportunity to spew out empty words on television, Escudero’s preference ratings have stayed pretty much the same over the last 2 years. There is no momentum at all. I won’t even be surprised if he finishes a distant third (or even fourth) when all is said and done. Joseph Estrada might even erode his chances of a third spot finish (not that it matters!) since Escudero’s base of support is supposedly the youth – a demographic that is also captured by the Aquino juggernaut.

As for Villar, I think it’s safe to say that his base is solid. Unfortunately for him, this base isn’t strong enough. And oh, there’s a character named Gilbert Teodoro as well who did a *cough* masterful *cough* job with the Ondoy relief.

I would be very surprised if Noynoy Aquino and Mar Roxas aren’t the two left standing come June 2010. My heart weeps that Loren got Roco’d.

Link: the actual release from SWS

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